What happens to EBITDA over twelve quarters if nothing changes, if the obvious things are fixed, or if
the commercial system is rebuilt — against a tariff cost that does not wait, and a price-increase window
that reopens every time cost moves.
This is deterministic modelling, not prediction. Every number below is arithmetic on the
assumptions you set — there is no forecast, no model, and nothing trained. What it is good for is
comparing paths on the same assumptions. What it cannot do is tell you which one will happen.
Cumulative EBITDA effect over 12 quarters. Leakage drifts upward as complexity grows and the
tariff cost lands in full.
Enterprise value: —
Fix the obvious
—
Accrual discipline and deduction matching. Leakage roughly halves; recovery runs at 50%
because commitments still cannot always be produced.
Enterprise value: —
Rebuild the system
—
Commitments on the ledger before money moves. Leakage falls toward a 4% floor and recovery
runs at 70% because every claim is testable.
Enterprise value: —
Market conditions — what the recovered EBITDA is worth
Recovered EBITDA is only half the equation. What it is worth at exit depends on the multiple,
and the multiple is set by where capital is rotating. Mid-market private CPG is marked off public
comparables, so consumer-staples rotation moves private valuations directly.
Base multiple
—
Rotation adjustment
—
Effective multiple
—
Enterprise value — rebuild path
—
Cumulative EBITDA effect, by quarter
Net of programme cost and of the tariff. The gap between the lines is what the decision is worth —
and it widens, because leakage compounds while a fix does not have to be repeated.
Hold
Fix the obvious
Rebuild
Forward-buy window opens
Quarter by quarter — the rebuild path
Shaded quarters are those in which a price increase opens a forward-buy window.