N
Nempathy
Performance Authority
Naomi
EBITDA impact analysis
Kainos Capital portfolio
Trade promotion recovery opportunity — prepared for Kevin Nemetz, Nempathy Solutions
Kainos Capital
Fund III — $1B
10+
Portfolio cos
3–5yr
EBITDA target
EBITDA goal
Assumptions Trade spend = 15% of revenue Leakage rate = 8–12% of trade spend Recovery rate = 60–80% Exit multiple = 5×–7× EBITDA Revenue estimates from public sources¹
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Portfolio revenue
Trade spend
Leakage
Recovered annually
Enterprise value at exit
Company Category Est. Revenue Trade spend (15%) Leakage (10%) Recovery (70%) EBITDA impact
good2grow
Kids beverages
$66M
Gehl Food & Beverage
Shelf-stable beverages
$137M
Kettle Cuisine
All-natural soups
$200M
Olde Thompson
Spices & seasonings
$75M
JTM Foods / JJ's Bakery
Snack pies & treats
$60M
Trilliant Food & Nutrition
Coffees & beverages
$80M
Colorado Premium
Premium proteins
$90M
CellCore Biosciences
Dietary supplements
$50M
Muenster
Freeze-dried pet food
$45M
SlimFast / Wellful
Weight mgmt / wellness
$150M
Conservative
8% leakage · 60% recovery
$6.9M
recovered annually
At 5× exit multiple: +$34M enterprise value
Realistic
10% leakage · 70% recovery
$10.0M
recovered annually
At 6× exit multiple: +$60M enterprise value
Aggressive
12% leakage · 80% recovery
$13.7M
recovered annually
At 7× exit multiple: +$96M enterprise value

Why this goes directly to EBITDA

Trade promotion recovery is not new revenue — it is money that was already spent and already belongs to the portfolio company. It was simply lost through overclaims, unverified compliance, and accrual errors. Recovering it requires no new customers, no new products, and no incremental sales investment. It flows directly to the bottom line, making it one of the highest-ROI operational improvements a PE-backed company can make.

Kevin's pitch to Kainos

"At a realistic scenario, this platform recovers $10M annually across your portfolio — directly to EBITDA. At a 6× exit multiple, that's $60M in enterprise value you're leaving on the table every year you don't have an audit in place. The platform cost is a rounding error by comparison."
¹ Revenue estimates sourced from Datanyze, RocketReach, Growjo, and BevNET. These are estimates for private companies and should be treated as directional. Actual trade spend and leakage figures will vary. Platform fee not included in recovery calculations — ROI on platform cost is typically 10×–20× at these recovery rates.